The location of HIMARS revealed Ukraine’s plans in the Kherson direction
The Hero of Russia told where Kyiv is planning attacks
For several weeks now, the topic of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south, in the direction of Kherson, has been actively discussed in the media and the expert community. The one that supposedly is about to begin. Opinions are different. Someone considers the Ukrainian counter-offensive impossible in principle – Kyiv, they say, already has no one and nothing to attack. Others are sure that by openly declaring an attack on Kherson, Kyiv distracts our generals from the real direction in which the strike is being prepared.
Photo : Global Look Press
What is actually happening now in different areas of the special operation, “MK” was told by the ex-assistant head of intelligence of the 131st separate motorized rifle brigade of the North Caucasian Military District, the former company commander of the Maykop brigade, Hero of Russia Rustem Klupov.
On the attack on Kherson, the Kyiv authorities started talking as early as July 11. Deputy Prime Minister Ms. Vereshchuk then called on the Ukrainians to urgently evacuate from the Kherson region, promising powerful shelling due to the start of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the south.
After that, the topic of the counteroffensive was exaggerated daily. Both the Ukrainian generals and the main Kyiv propagandist Arestovich spoke about this, and when American HIMARS rockets began flying over civilian targets and bridges across the Dnieper, even British intelligence could not remain silent.
Through the media, the British said that the counter-offensive of Ukrainian troops in the south is allegedly gaining momentum every day. The UAF, the British said, is using its new long-range artillery to damage three bridges across the Dnieper, on which the supply of the Russian southern group depends. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they say, are holding a bridgehead south of the Ingulets River, from which a decisive offensive will begin as part of the strategic operation of the Ukrainian General Staff called the “Battle for Kherson”.
Following this, information was “leaked” from Zelensky’s Office about the fact that they allegedly agreed on the general strategy of the General Staff, including the removal of artillery units from the eastern direction, which are being transferred to the Nikolaev and Dnepropetrovsk regions to support the counteroffensive.
The question arises: why does all this sound at all? Why are the strategic plans of the General Staff placed in the information space, where they are discussed by all and sundry?
After Kyiv's statements, many had doubts whether all this was a PR campaign or a distraction maneuver on the part of the Ukrainian command.< /p>
– Part of HIMARS is located near Kharkov, more precisely, near Izyum. And most of them are located in the Kherson direction, where they, in particular, manifest themselves by strikes on the Antonovsky bridge across the Dnieper. Sometimes, judging by the videos from the places in social networks, they hit the ammunition depots.
Of course, we do not receive more specific information from the battlefield. A lot of incidental information has to be analyzed, taking into account, among other things, the insane reports of Arestovich. True, he is ready to carry anything, there is no point in trusting this, almost always his words do not carry any information load.
– The most potentially dangerous thing for us in the region of Dnepropetrovsk and Krivoy Rog is that somewhere in this area about two hundred Polish tanks and about 50 M113 armored personnel carriers, which have not been seen anywhere else, “disappeared” somewhere.
Of the 260 tanks that were transferred from Poland to Ukraine, we found 60 tanks near Dnepropetrovsk. Most of them have already been destroyed or captured. But about 200 more tanks “disappeared”.
– Usually they are taken to a certain place and then immediately driven somewhere under the roofs: to underground parking lots, to shopping centers, some industrial zones with large wide roofs, where they can be hidden from observation from space, from air and radar reconnaissance.
– It's possible… (laughs). But information about the sale of such a number of tanks has not yet been received. Otherwise, such a hype would have been raised in the West! Although, no, there was something, but not in the amount of two hundred units. How many, maybe they have already driven. Their war is war, and business is business.
– They created a reserve corps. Its headquarters is near Dnepropetrovsk. The corps included six brigades: air assault, airmobile, three mechanized and one infantry. They pulled even those units that were on the Belarusian border – removed them from there to the south.
But all the same, I can confidently say that the mobilized human resources – the so-called “cannon fodder” – all go to make up for losses in the Donetsk direction. They hold this frontier with the last of their strength. At the same time, even part of the reserve corps was used up.
In the Kherson direction from the front line to Kherson – 60 kilometers. To break through them, they need to create a shock fist – no less than a full-blooded division. That is, it turns out: the depth of the combat mission of the division is 50 kilometers. And a division is three full-blooded brigades plus support for corps artillery – that is, an artillery brigade that is part of the corps.
– Theoretically, it may be enough to reach Kherson in the shortest direction and try to break through the defenses. But in order to go on the offensive, it is necessary to carry out a number of preparatory moments. The first and most important thing is to gain air supremacy.
– If they cannot gain air supremacy, then they need to at least gain air superiority for a short period of time. During this offensive operation, those very 60 kilometers will go for a week. For this week, they need to seize the initiative in the air over this territory, where Russian aviation now dominates.
– Firstly, due to the transfer of NATO aircraft. They say that the training of NATO aviators is in full swing. And Ukrainian pilots are already ready to fly on American F-16s. Secondly, by strengthening the interaction of the Ukrainian air defense forces that they have left.
– Not all of their S-300 divisions have been completely destroyed. Their S-300s and Buk complexes are directly tied to NATO AWACS (airborne early warning aircraft. – “MK”), which fly a hundred kilometers from the border of Ukraine and over neutral waters in the Black Sea. That is, NATO technical means work in the interests of Ukraine, and this complicates the actions of our aviation. This, by the way, is one of the reasons why it is difficult to track down and destroy all the Buks and S-300s. They are on duty in a passive mode, that is, they do not work on radiation. They turn on the active mode only at the moment when our planes enter the affected area. And Ukrainian air defense receives target designation from NATO.
– If they were sent to study and they are training there for the F-15 and F-16, then why not? Although it is possible that most of them still study on the MiG-29, adapted to NATO standards. The Russian MiG-29 is different from those, for example, in the Romanian or Polish Air Force.
– Their avionics are the same, the piloting of the aircraft is the same, but NATO uses its own means of destruction. These are both anti-radar missiles and air-to-air missiles … The weapon control of this aircraft has already been sharpened to NATO standards. So the Ukrainians have to learn, work out the issues of using weapons.
In addition, in the interests of gaining air superiority, American F-22s with Aim-120 missiles arrived in Poland. These are long-range missiles, that is, they can, on a tip from the same AWACS, shoot down aircraft over Ukraine while in Polish airspace.
– Yes. And what we will draw from this conclusion is already a political question. But purely technically, we can destroy these aircraft over the territory of Poland. We have the forces, means and capabilities for this, including the S-400 and the first S-500. With their help, we can reach any aircraft on the territory of Poland.
– In Kyiv, they openly talk about this because they understand that they will not be able to achieve strategic and even operational surprise. We have space, aerial reconnaissance, we track every movement of their troops. Maybe we can’t reach everyone, for the time being.
So now it would be more correct to pose the question: where is it more expedient for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to carry out this counterstrike? The fact that they mobilized, prepared a reserve corps, they have reserves, including tanks, armored vehicles, artillery in order to launch a counterattack somewhere, is a fact. We do not dispute it. The gun that should fire is already hanging on the wall. And it's loaded. The only question is which way this gun will shoot.
– Yes, and according to our intelligence data – they are now in the public domain – there is a concentration of forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the main directions. The first is Bryansk, the second is Kharkov, the third is Donetsk, there are the remnants of their main operational forces, which were aimed at advancing on Donetsk. And the fourth direction is Nikolaev – Kherson. Now let's analyze each direction separately.
What will they achieve in the Bryansk direction if they go on the counteroffensive?
– Yes, and in this case, a special military operation will immediately go into a completely different format. It will no longer be called an operation, but you yourself understand what. And this will allow us to use a completely different military contingent of the Armed Forces in this area. Kyiv does not need this, so in this direction the blow, of course, can be auxiliary or distracting.
In the Kharkiv direction, they are concentrating forces in order to counterattack in different directions, where we have success, to prevent our troops from reaching the range of our artillery in Kharkov.
The loss of Kharkov for them will have a fundamentally important moral side. And therefore it is clear why they have reserves concentrated there.
They are also gathering reserves in the Donetsk direction. They are used to plug holes in order to prevent our troops from breaking through to the operational depth. If successful, our troops there will immediately, within a few days, reach the Dnieper and, having a foothold in the south, will promptly cut the entire group of Ukrainian armed forces into two parts. For the southern part of their troops, this will be a collapse.
– Proceeding from the operational-strategic logic, not from the logic of Arestovich, I, as a military man, understand that their main task here is to destroy our foothold on the western bank of the Dnieper. He is a thorn in the eye for them. If we retain this foothold, we will not have to force the Dnieper to solve the problems of a special military operation.
During the Great Patriotic War, a similar operation led to huge losses. Each of the battalion, or it seems even the company, who was the first to set foot on the high coast occupied by the Nazis, was awarded the title of Hero of the Soviet Union. One day, more than two thousand fighters immediately received this award. We remember their feat, but despite this, today we still would not like to repeat it. That is why it is so important for us to have this foothold in the south. From it you can begin to develop an offensive against Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, and most importantly – against Kyiv through Krivoy Rog from the south.
That is why it is now very important for our troops to hold this foothold. I would like it not at any cost, but with skill and professionalism, using long-range fire weapons and with the help of technical reconnaissance equipment, in order to timely open and destroy any concentration of enemy forces.
– As I said, the enemy needs, firstly, to gain air supremacy, or at least to provide some kind of superiority for a short period of time. Secondly, to inflict a fire defeat on our troops. Thirdly, withdraw your troops from shelters to the initial areas for the offensive, or go into direct contact with our troops.
There are two ways to go on the offensive. If they go on the offensive from the depths, then they need to go to the areas of concentration. They must leave all their hiding places and gather somewhere in order to launch an offensive from there. And this, according to all charters and rules, is 20-40 kilometers from the line of contact.
And here, I think, they, of course, will be immediately discovered. Until now, they have not been able to gather more than a battalion in order to go on the counterattack somewhere. And, as a rule, it ended badly for them.
– One of the battalions really tried to do this, capturing a small bridgehead there. We saw it, we understood that it was becoming dangerous. If this bridgehead is not liquidated in a timely manner, it may become a place where large forces will be concentrated and from there they will already go on the offensive without forcing. As a result, this bridgehead was destroyed in a timely manner, and the enemy was driven back.
– Definitely. This can be proved by any operational calculations. From Gulyaipol to Mariupol, they also tried to move – they probed us. But their scattered attacks, inconsistent in time and place with artillery and aircraft, had meager success. Our troops have learned to stop and destroy them easily. Pull into fire bags and pound them there. As a result, they suffer heavy losses. That is why the psychology of the Ukrainian soldier during these six months of the special operation was formed as a defensive one.
– They have already increased the age of mobilization to 70 years. Grandpas, of course, have nothing to lose. I am still incomplete 60, I have been to different wars, I understand how hard military work is. And I understand that at this age I am no longer fit to run around the battlefield. At least for a long time, as it was in his youth in the Afghan mountains.
– Definitely. All my conclusions about what is happening in the special operation zone are based on the real actions of the Ukrainian side. Our troops now need to focus on these areas to repel a counterattack. And be ready to defeat the advancing troops with small forces.
– It happens like this: two boxers are fighting. One is big, the other is small. Big takes power, small technicality. Is it necessary to launch another boxer into the ring for this? And where can I get this second one? The fact is that an attack to the head can be stopped by a counterattack to the liver, and thereby bring the opponent to his knees.
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