Experts assessed the likelihood of early negotiations Russia-Ukraine: “The continuation of the conflict is catastrophic”
Specialists do not believe in the imminent resumption of contacts between Moscow and Kyiv
The doors for negotiations with Ukraine remain open, said Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov. In turn, the prospect of their early resumption is called into question by the heads of the foreign affairs agencies of Russia and Ukraine, Sergei Lavrov and Dmitry Kuleba. But circumstances change literally every day, and no matter how much Kyiv has to take advantage of Russia's open door.
After the Russian-Ukrainian talks were frozen in early April, the topic of dialogue between the parties practically fell off the agenda. Periodic telephone contacts continued for some time, as reported by the head of the Ukrainian delegation, David Arakhamia, also noting the “freeze” of the negotiation process, which was disrupted by Ukraine due to the events in Bucha.
Based on Russia, the Ukrainian side decided backtrack on previous agreements. In turn, now Russia is not going to continue negotiations with the previous conditions. MK talked to experts about further negotiation prospects.
When assessing the possibility of resuming negotiations, one should pay more attention to the history of the issue, says Aleksey Zudin, a senior lecturer at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
“The whole course of previous events shows that Russia is fully and uncompromisingly determined to implement the tasks set by Vladimir Putin for a special military operation, and Ukraine, in turn, is not allowed and will not be allowed to conduct meaningful negotiations,” the expert notes, “The West has relied on to weaken and contain Russia through Ukraine. There are various assumptions that negotiations are being prepared and possible scenarios for completing the special operation, but this is all far from the truth.”
According to Zudin, many such scenarios, such as Kissinger's scenarios, were drawn up without taking into account Russia's position. “Everything was built on the amount of territory that could go to Russia, but the fact that the main thing for us is the issue of security was ignored. Under these conditions, it seems that negotiations are hardly possible in the near future,” the expert believes.
Zudin noted that even taking into account the circumstances of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass, there is no one hundred percent chance of resuming negotiations. Otherwise, according to the interlocutor of MK, Istanbul or the capital of any other state that does not belong to the countries of the Western bloc can become the place for renewed negotiations.
In turn, Denis Denisov, director of the Institute for Peacekeeping Initiatives and Conflictology, believes that the resumption of negotiations in the near future is quite possible.
“We see that with the absence of negotiations on political issues, there are negotiations on trade related to grain,” the expert noted. “The negotiation process traditionally occurs when one of the parties sees the continuation of the conflict as catastrophic,” the political scientist noted, “We can recall the notorious signings of the first and second Minsk agreements. There were severe defeats of the Ukrainian army near Ilovaisk and Debaltseve and, as a result, there was an effective negotiation process. It is unlikely that there will be a different scenario within the framework of the special operation. Everything will depend on specific events and circumstances.”
Denisov believes that the composition of the delegations will be influenced by the initial positions and results that will lead to negotiations. “Initially, in March, there were representatives from the Ukrainian side who were clearly called upon not to resolve the conflict, but rather to create a kind of negotiation process. If there is a will for a constructive agreement and results, then the negotiators, of course, will be different on both sides,” the expert believes.