American experts predicted an attack on Odessa in early 2023
“Landlocked interest in Ukraine plummets”
Foreign publications predict a full-scale offensive of the RF Armed Forces on Odessa, which is very scary for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and local territorial defense units. The American magazine Foreign Policy even announced the date of the alleged start of the “Odessa operation” – the beginning of 2023. According to the Americans, Odessa is the most important strategic and economic point, since it is a port city with access to the Black Sea. Where does the export of Ukrainian grain and other goods begin. MK found out how possible such a scenario is.
Photo: Global Look Press
In the city itself, there is a constant alarm, but not only military, but also “on the agenda”. It is this term that the inhabitants of Odessa have called the current widespread conscription of residents into the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Local residents have long been accustomed to informing in advance in Telegram channels about the appearance of military registration and enlistment office employees with “letters of happiness”. “Srednyaya Street, 29. We were just standing there giving summonses, one young guy has already been handed over,” a typical message for those who do not want to join the ranks of the “cannon fodder of the Armed Forces of Ukraine”.
But, despite the active resistance to mobilization, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still gathering forces to strengthen Odessa. American experts also share a similar opinion.
“Given the time Ukraine has gained to fortify this southern region as the fighting continues further east and north, it will be difficult for the Russians to enter and take Odessa, especially with western multiple launch rocket systems that can deter the Russian fleet,” the expert said. for European Security Affairs, former US Department of Defense official Jim Townsend.
However, the RF Armed Forces so far prefer to deliver pinpoint strikes against enemy infrastructure. The other day, as a result of only one strike on the marines of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from long-range weapons, the Ukrainian army lost more than 200 personnel. It is not surprising that the mobilization causes mixed feelings of indignation and fear among the inhabitants of Odessa.
– It is not only about the city of Odessa, but about access to the sea, – the expert believes, – Without access to the sea, not only Ukraine will lose .
Yes, this is a huge blow to the economy. We can talk about three ports at once – Odessa, Chernomorsk, Yuzhny. The ability to export or import is severely limited.
However, what other exports or imports does Ukraine have? What are we talking about? Will Ukraine exist at all in the foreseeable future? Without access to the sea, Western interest in Ukraine drops sharply. The concept of a buffer zone “from sea to sea” is being destroyed.
But just now negotiations on the export of grain from Ukraine have been completed. Kyiv and the West want to guarantee themselves the preservation of ports for some time
— Russia benefits not only from ports. But ports are always valuable in themselves. They were not built in a vacuum, they have infrastructure and so on.
Secondly, it is as beneficial for Russia to cut off Ukraine and the West from access to the Black Sea on the territory of ex-Ukraine as it is beneficial for the West to have them under control and it is very scary to lose it.
In addition, Russia needs a corridor to Transnistria.
— It is not possible, but it should be mandatory. Without Odessa and Nikolaev, without access to the PMR, the Northern Military District cannot be considered successful.
– These are not just the territories of the Black Sea. This is the completed outline. In addition, these are the very cities and territories that are not related to “Ukraine” – these are cities built by Russian emperors, Odessa and Nikolaev are not Ukrainian cities at all. Well, this is strategically important.
There are no fewer people who sympathize with Russia than, for example, in Kherson. And Kherson has already fully adapted to life in a new jurisdiction. That is why now the Nikolaev region is closed for travel, punitive raids by the SBU are being carried out there, and those who are not sufficiently loyal to the Kyiv regime are being identified. The same will happen in Odessa.