Kissinger gave a gloomy forecast for Russia in Ukraine
The oldest diplomat named the conditions for the start of a world war
Henry Kissinger gave an interview to the conservative British magazine The Spectator (almost 200 years old) and outlined three scenarios for the end of the situation in Ukraine. They do not inspire much optimism, especially compared to the same Kissinger's statements at the Davos Forum at the end of May.
Photo: Global Look Press
Kissinger is worth listening to not only because he is one of the oldest and most experienced diplomats in the world, is a member of the highest offices and has influence on world leaders. But also because one of the few remaining figures of the real world. One where ministers and diplomats were appointed on the basis of experience, ability, and not compliance with the agenda and did not declare, as, for example, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, that they would never recognize Russia's sovereignty over the Rostov region.
Let me remind you that in May Kissinger's Davos speech aroused, if not outrage, then indignation. He was even listed on the Myrotvorets website as a hostile and undesirable figure for Ukraine. Because he stated that “negotiations should begin within the next two months, before the situation finally becomes unmanageable and impossible to correct.” And most importantly, perhaps Ukraine should make territorial concessions to start negotiations.
And now, a month later, Kissinger is no longer talking about the need for territorial concessions to start negotiations. In May, he explains, the purpose of his statement was to settle the question of the purpose of the military confrontation before it all falls into the abyss – “becomes politically unmanageable.” Now, in his opinion, the goals are defined and three outcomes are possible. Moreover, “all three of them are still open to some extent.” That is, if a month ago, Russia, in his opinion, could enter into negotiations after territorial concessions from Ukraine, now this will not happen. This means that hostilities will continue until one or the other side exhausts the possibility of conducting them.
Kissinger sees three outcomes as follows.
The first. Russian victory. Under it, he understands the situation when Russia will remain where it is now. And thus will receive 20% of Ukraine and most of the Donbass (the main industrial and agricultural region), as well as a strip of land along the Black Sea. If she stays there, it will be a victory. At the same time, the role of NATO will not be as decisive as previously thought. That is, in fact, the threat from the North Atlantic alliance, which Russia spoke about, will be leveled. Interestingly, in general terms, this coincides with the goals that the President of Russia also called.
Second. War with Russia. Kissinger believes that it is possible to oust Russia from the territory of Donbass to the borders of 2014 and from the territory of Crimea. This, in his opinion, will lead Ukraine and the West to the question of a war with Russia itself. In fact – to the global conflict. Considering the statements of our president about a crushing response to those who “climb” and bringing our nuclear forces into a special mode of readiness, this option is the most frightening.
Third. Loss of Russia. If the Ukrainians can push Russia back to the borders as of February, then “Ukraine will be restored.” And most importantly, “it will be re-armed and closely linked with NATO if it does not become part of it.” That's when “the rest of the issues could be left to the discretion of the negotiations.” The conflict will be frozen. And such a situation, according to Kissinger, will be “a significant achievement for the allies.” NATO will be strengthened by the addition of Finland and Sweden, which will create an opportunity for the defense of the Baltic countries. Ukraine will have the largest conventional ground forces in Europe associated with or as members of NATO. “Russia will be shown that the fear that has hung over Europe since the Second World War, before the advance of the Russian army, can be prevented by the usual actions of NATO,” the diplomat said. In his opinion, this will also lead to a change in the balance of power in general – America will cease to be “the main element in the defense of Europe with the help of its nuclear forces.” And Europe will be so united that “for the first time in recent history, Russia will have to face the need to coexist with Europe as a whole.”
According to Kissinger's May forecast, there is still a month to keep control of the situation. It would be better to listen to this forecast – because his new forecasts are getting gloomier.